Thursday, January 5, 2012

BCS Conference Primer

College basketball is divided into four distinct segments: Non-conference, conference, conference tournament, and then a post season tournament. Every team takes part in a conference tournament except those from the Ivy League and thanks to the addition of two more post season tournaments, most teams play in all four segments of the season. The first segment has come to an end and as always it has provided us more questions than answers.

1. Who is the fairest of them all?: Syracuse, Ohio State, Kentucky, UNC have all proven their mettle. Each team has flaws that need to be ironed out in the conference season. However, these four teams play at a level that sets them apart from their peers.

2. Which conference is the "best"?: Everyone is biased towards the "BCS" leagues, but the great thing about college hoops is that the sexy league isn't always the best. The A-10, CUSA, Horizon, and even the OVC all have teams that can ball. The question is can they crack the top tier? That won't be too hard because the Pac12 is... well, I will wait.

3. Which "surprise" team will spiral out of control: The obvious example of this conundrum would be the Clemson team from a couple of seasons back that started the season undefeated before not making the NCAA tournament. Conference play can be a mysterious beast. Honestly there isn't a team in the top ten that looks like that Clemson team. However one team certainly looks like they could trip up just a little bit in conference play- Baylor. Baylor is undefeated and has some decent wins under their belt, but they haven't truly been tested. Sure they were tested by WVU and MissState but those were at neutral sites. They struggled defensively against BYU on the road and when you look at who they have to play in the Big12 on the road they could easily struggle some more. Are they a tournament team? Of course, just expect some of the luster to vanish.

With that said let's look ahead to the conference season. Here are some bold predictions for the journey ahead. Let's keep it simple: BCS leagues first...

ACC
Predicted Winner: One has to expect UNC to be the team that comes out on top in the ACC. They have been tested and have shown resilience. The UNLV game was their mulligan and had a lot of factors that led to the loss in a neutral gym that just happened to be in Las Vegas. The loss to UK was one of those "good" losses people like to talk about. Had Anthony Davis not blocked that shot, UNC is in a different boat. Luckily this isn't college football.

Dark Horse: Everyone wants to say Duke. Screw it. Duke is not that impressive. Austin Rivers is a hell of a talent, but for some reason doesn't live up to the hype. Call it my old Kentucky hatred of Duke but something about this Duke team doesn't inspire confidence. Who is my dark horse team you ask: UVA. The Cavs are off to a surprising 13-1 start under Tony Bennett and have a great win against Michigan under their belts. The win over LSU on the road may end up being a surprisingly good win later on in the season. Will it happen? Probably not. But everyone remembers Maryland right?

Big12
Prediction: Mizzou for the win. Two teams in this league are undefeated and Mizzou has that panache that makes them the flavor of the month. Out is Mike Anderson and in is Frank Haith. Haith was given a shot at making the U into a basketball school. We all know how that usually turns out, and so too did Haith. He jumped ship and headed to Mizzou and inherited a crazy talented team that has embraced the new system. Not to mention this is Mizzou's last hurrah in the Big12...

Dark Horse: This is a different Big12. Football showed us that. I'm taking Baylor. I know, I just said they are my pick to "collapse". Let me be clear. I can see this team losing games on the road in the league. However in a tournament setting, this is a dangerous team. One game scenarios are scary, and Baylor has the athletes to compete. They don't quite have that Mizzou magic though.

Big East
Prediction: The obvious pick is Syracuse. Bernie Fine drama aside, Cuse can ball. Veteran coach, a down league, great talent equals success. Undefeated run? Good lord no. It's the Big East. Tournament victory? More than likely.

Dark Horse: When UConn has its act together they can be tough to beat. When they are so-so they lose for the first time in like a century to Seton Hall. The defending national champs lost Kemba Walker but kept Jeremy Lamb. How can you not be impressed with him? Add to the mix highly talented and highly recruited super frosh Andre Drummond and sophomore Shabazz Napier and you get a potent combination of youth and "veterans".

BigTen
Prediction: Ohio State is LOADED and Thad Matta is REALLY good at what he does. The only thing that hurts them is Jared Sullinger's back. If the back is healthy- they win. If it isn't healthy, they win by less. Come March, the Buckeyes are going to be scary good.

Dark Horse: It's been a while but here it comes... Indiana. The Tom Crean experiment is starting to come to life as a Frankensteinesque beast that has a knack for defeating top teams at home. They have a good road win at NCState but that's about it. However, BigTen teams are on notice about trips to Assembly Hall. By the way, number 15 Michigan is down 11 against the Hoosiers in B-town.

Pac12
NOTE: This is the first season in a long while that this league has been absolutely putrid. No teams in this league are considered "threats". The best team in the west you ask? Probably Gonzaga or UNLV.

Prediction: Cal was DRUMMED by Mizzou and by UNLV. However this Cal Bears team might be the best of the worst out west. I hate everything about Cal which is said because I respect Coach Montgomery. You can blame your football team for my hatred.

Dark Horse: Thank goodness for the greater San Francisco area because if not for this lovely little piece of geography the Pac12 would be terrible. Stanford is my dark horse and could easily be my main prediction. This conference is too unstable. It all comes down to who doesn't suck the most. Maybe President Obama's brother in law can sneak Oregon State into the Pac12 title game.

SEC
Prediction: You know who I am going to pick and why- Kentucky. Seriously, it's the SEC.

Dark Horse: There are a few teams that can emerge and win the SEC title. Vandy is the obvious choice assuming that Festus comes back and is good to go. Outside of that one could say Mississippi State and Florida. I am too biased to right this.

Conference play is here! One more football game to go and it's all basketball all the time. With that said....

WVU scored 70 points. They really aren't a Big East team now.

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